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Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Marlins Follow High Stakes Offseason with Low Risk Gamble
The Miami Marlins have made headlines this offseason with the high priced acquisitions of Jose Reyes, Mark Buehlre, and Heath Bell. In adding former Cubs starting pitcher Carlos Zambrano, they've injected a highly combustible player into the mix... but he could represent their lowest risk and best gamble of the offseason.
Carlos Zambrano's time in Chicago was marked by high expectations but very public blowups. Michael Barrett once got into a sparring match in the dugout, and no gatorade container was safe within 50 yards of the easily excitable Zambrano. He was finally banished from the team for good after a forgettable outing against the Atlanta Braves in which he gave up 5 homeruns and clearly quit on his team. The Cubs were left with nothing except an $18 million price tag for 2012 on Zambrano, and they certainly couldn't go into the season with him in the rotation.
Enter the Miami Marlins. In new manager Ozzie Guillen, they have perhaps one of the only people in baseball with a stronger personality, and one that could keep "Big Z" in check. In that the Cubs had to unload him, the Marlins became an ideal landing spot. The Marlins are reportedly only on the hook for $3 million of his 2012 salary.
In Zambrano, they are getting a 30 year old power right hander with 125 wins on his resume. That makes him the 2nd winningest pitcher in all of baseball that enters the 2012 season at the age of 31 or younger (CC Sabathia has 176). For comparison's sake, Josh Beckett (31) also has 125 wins. Cliff Lee (32) has 119. Dan Haren (30) has 107. Jered Weaver (28) just signed an $85 million contract and has 82 wins on his resume - he'll have a difficult time being as accomplished as Zambrano at the same age.
At just a $3 million price tag, Zambrano represents the perfect gamble for this boom or bust Miami Marlins team. If he flops, they can cut him. If he succeeds under Guillen's watch, he becomes the top 4th or 5th starter in National League and brings the Marlins that much closer to contending in the highly competitive NL East. Oh, and he has reason to put it together... he'll be a free agent, and this offers him the perfect opportunity to reclaim his identity. He's the perfect gamble for the 2012 new look Miami Marlins.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
AL Predictions - Division Races and Awards
The season starts tomorrow, so of course it's imperative that I outline my sure to fail guesstimations for the AL. The Rangers surprised everyone with their World Series run in '10. The Seattle Mariners entered last season as the "popular" pick... and they finished in last. I have some different ideas than most of the experts. We'll see how off I am. We'll start with...
AL East
Everyone knows that the Orioles and Blue Jays will not win this division. Yes, the Blue Jays rid themselves of Vernon Wells terrible contract. Yes they won 85 games last year. Yes they have some young talent... BUT, they're top 3 starters are Ricky Romero/Brett Cecil/Kyle Drabek. Their 4-5 hitters (Adam Lind, Aaron Hill) both had terrible seasons. They can't bank on Jose Bautista hitting 54 homeruns again, considering his previous career high was 14. They traded #2 starter Shaun Marcum to the Brewers. This will be the year that the Orioles pass the Blue Jays and finish in 4th. The Orioles have a stable of young, promising arms and added a number of veteran bats in Vlad Guerrero, Derrek Lee, JJ Hardy, and Mark Reynolds. This is also a big year for Matt Wieters, as everyone is waiting for him to show his potential. They have good groundwork laid for the future. They have the young arms... now they need some young bats (Wieters, Adam Jones, Markakis) to help them move forward.
This division will come down to the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays. The Rays have been partially dismantled and lost major pieces in Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, and Matt Garza. However, they were more prepared than any other team to fill these gaps. They brought in veterans Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez for just over $7 million and have top prospect Jeremy Hellickson ready to step in for Garza. David Price will again contend for the Cy Young. The Yankees will score a ton of runs, and Robinson Cano will likely be the best player on the team this year. They obviously have Teixeira/A-Rod on the corners, and CF Brett Gardner looked great last season. However, they have major question marks in their starting rotation, making it necessary for them to add Rafael Soriano (at closer money) to set up for Mariano Rivera. They are counting on major contributions from Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, and Kevin Millwood. They named Ivan Nova their #4 starter. He'll win some games because they Yankees will outscore people, but their age is catching up on them. The Red Sox are built to win this division. They acquired Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, and should get full seasons from Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury. Jon Lester is a Cy Young contender. I'm all in on the Sox...
Red Sox win the division (and win 100), Rays finish 2nd, Yankees miss the playoffs...
AL Central
The bottom of the division isn't a difficult call. It'll be a race between the Royals and Indians. The Royals are going to win this division in 2013 (yes, I'm convinced). They have they top minor league system in the league, and it's not close. Unfortunately for them, the kids aren't ready this year. They've had an eye-popping spring offensively. Alex Gordon (yes, that Alex Gordon) is penciled into the 3rd spot in front of Billy Butler. They also have 3 rookies in the bullpen and terrible starting pitching. Luke Hochevar, Jeff Francis, and Kyle Davies head the rotation. It'll be a long season in KC, but there may be some hope for the future if Mike Moustakas or Eric Hosmer gets an in season call up. The Indians have better pitching with Fausto Carmona, Carlos Carrasco (in the Cliff Lee trade), and Justin Masterson. They have promising young bats in catching phenom Carlos Santana and Triple-A 3B Lonnie Chisenhall. Shin Soo Choo may be the top RF in the American League and is very capable of 25 HR & 25 SB. Grady Sizemore is a huge question mark. The Indians' place in the AL Central is not. They'll go 72-90.
The top is a tough call. The Twins quietly have a very consistent pitching staff that is lead by Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano. Delmon Young developed into a middle of the order run producer last season with 25 HR and 110 RBI's. The big questions will be surrounding the health of stars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Morneau finally appears to be recovered from his concussion suffered last summer. Mauer is having knee issues and hit just 9 homeruns last season. The Tigers have the top starter in division in Justin Verlander and hard throwing Max Scherzer looks to take the next step. They also have a lineup that can score a ton of runs if Miguel Cabrera can lay off the sauce and newcomer Victor Martinez can deliver a 20 HR, 100 RBI campaign. The dark horse here is the White Sox. Most experts have them finishing 3rd behind the Twins and Tigers. I see the White Sox having tremendous depth in the starting rotation and a potentially dynamic lineup. Gordon Beckham is looking for a bounce back season. Alexei Ramirez is one of the top SS in the AL. They have major power in Adam Dunn (he'll hit 45 HR) and Paul Konerko, and Alex Rios seemed to be revitalized under the tutelage of Ozzie Guillen. Mark Buehrle will win 14 games and deliver 200 innings. They'll need solid seasons from Edwin Jackson, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd to compete. I think they will. I'm taking...
The White Sox in a close race with an 88-74 record. The Twins and Tigers finish with 86 & 85 wins, respectively...
AL West
Let's get the Mariners out of the way. Last year, their offense was historically bad. This year, it will be marginally better, but still terrible. They cannot score. Any offense that trots out both Jack Wilson and Brendan Ryan will struggle, especially hitting them together in the order. In a lineup that already features singles hitters in Ichiro and Chone Figgins... well you get the drift. They're planning on hitting Jack Cust cleanup. They are going with a surplus of youth on the pitching staff. They still have Cy Young award winner Felix Hernandez. My hunch is that they'll realize, sadly, that they'll need to move him to rebuild the team. This guy says 69-93 for your 2011 Mariners.
I always have a hard time picking against Mike Scioscia's Angels. BUT, their lineup is getting old with Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, and Vernon Wells. Kendrys Morales is starting the year on the DL. The rotation should be strong headed by Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana, and Joel Pineiro. They won't score enough, though, to win this year. Have to imagine they'll prepare a substantial offer for Albert Pujols this offseason.
The division should come down to the Rangers and Athletics. The Rangers are going to score, and their addition of Adrian Beltre should not be overlooked. He should thrive in Texas hitting between Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz. The big question will be how many games Hamilton and Cruz can play. Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus are excellent table setters. Mitch Moreland looks to be an excellent young first baseman. They're really going to miss Cliff Lee, though, in the rotation. Colby Lewis and CJ Wilson each bump up in the rotation, and neither can be considered an ace. On the other hand, the A's are loaded with pitching, reminiscent of their days with Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito. Their top 3 of Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, and Gio Gonzalez compare favorably with any top 3 in the AL. The middle of the lineup is weak with David DeJesus, Josh Willingham, and Hideki Matsui. I think they're pitching will be enough to compensate for the shortcomings on offense...
Athletics edge out the Rangers with the Angels finishing a distant 3rd
Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson - Rays, Kyle Drabek - Blue Jays
Cy Young: Jon Lester - Red Sox, Jered Weaver - Angels
MVP: Adrian Gonzalez - Red Sox, Robinson Cano - Yankees
And this is what I think I know heading into another exciting season...
AL East
Everyone knows that the Orioles and Blue Jays will not win this division. Yes, the Blue Jays rid themselves of Vernon Wells terrible contract. Yes they won 85 games last year. Yes they have some young talent... BUT, they're top 3 starters are Ricky Romero/Brett Cecil/Kyle Drabek. Their 4-5 hitters (Adam Lind, Aaron Hill) both had terrible seasons. They can't bank on Jose Bautista hitting 54 homeruns again, considering his previous career high was 14. They traded #2 starter Shaun Marcum to the Brewers. This will be the year that the Orioles pass the Blue Jays and finish in 4th. The Orioles have a stable of young, promising arms and added a number of veteran bats in Vlad Guerrero, Derrek Lee, JJ Hardy, and Mark Reynolds. This is also a big year for Matt Wieters, as everyone is waiting for him to show his potential. They have good groundwork laid for the future. They have the young arms... now they need some young bats (Wieters, Adam Jones, Markakis) to help them move forward.
This division will come down to the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays. The Rays have been partially dismantled and lost major pieces in Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, and Matt Garza. However, they were more prepared than any other team to fill these gaps. They brought in veterans Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez for just over $7 million and have top prospect Jeremy Hellickson ready to step in for Garza. David Price will again contend for the Cy Young. The Yankees will score a ton of runs, and Robinson Cano will likely be the best player on the team this year. They obviously have Teixeira/A-Rod on the corners, and CF Brett Gardner looked great last season. However, they have major question marks in their starting rotation, making it necessary for them to add Rafael Soriano (at closer money) to set up for Mariano Rivera. They are counting on major contributions from Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, and Kevin Millwood. They named Ivan Nova their #4 starter. He'll win some games because they Yankees will outscore people, but their age is catching up on them. The Red Sox are built to win this division. They acquired Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, and should get full seasons from Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury. Jon Lester is a Cy Young contender. I'm all in on the Sox...
Red Sox win the division (and win 100), Rays finish 2nd, Yankees miss the playoffs...
AL Central
The bottom of the division isn't a difficult call. It'll be a race between the Royals and Indians. The Royals are going to win this division in 2013 (yes, I'm convinced). They have they top minor league system in the league, and it's not close. Unfortunately for them, the kids aren't ready this year. They've had an eye-popping spring offensively. Alex Gordon (yes, that Alex Gordon) is penciled into the 3rd spot in front of Billy Butler. They also have 3 rookies in the bullpen and terrible starting pitching. Luke Hochevar, Jeff Francis, and Kyle Davies head the rotation. It'll be a long season in KC, but there may be some hope for the future if Mike Moustakas or Eric Hosmer gets an in season call up. The Indians have better pitching with Fausto Carmona, Carlos Carrasco (in the Cliff Lee trade), and Justin Masterson. They have promising young bats in catching phenom Carlos Santana and Triple-A 3B Lonnie Chisenhall. Shin Soo Choo may be the top RF in the American League and is very capable of 25 HR & 25 SB. Grady Sizemore is a huge question mark. The Indians' place in the AL Central is not. They'll go 72-90.
The top is a tough call. The Twins quietly have a very consistent pitching staff that is lead by Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano. Delmon Young developed into a middle of the order run producer last season with 25 HR and 110 RBI's. The big questions will be surrounding the health of stars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Morneau finally appears to be recovered from his concussion suffered last summer. Mauer is having knee issues and hit just 9 homeruns last season. The Tigers have the top starter in division in Justin Verlander and hard throwing Max Scherzer looks to take the next step. They also have a lineup that can score a ton of runs if Miguel Cabrera can lay off the sauce and newcomer Victor Martinez can deliver a 20 HR, 100 RBI campaign. The dark horse here is the White Sox. Most experts have them finishing 3rd behind the Twins and Tigers. I see the White Sox having tremendous depth in the starting rotation and a potentially dynamic lineup. Gordon Beckham is looking for a bounce back season. Alexei Ramirez is one of the top SS in the AL. They have major power in Adam Dunn (he'll hit 45 HR) and Paul Konerko, and Alex Rios seemed to be revitalized under the tutelage of Ozzie Guillen. Mark Buehrle will win 14 games and deliver 200 innings. They'll need solid seasons from Edwin Jackson, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd to compete. I think they will. I'm taking...
The White Sox in a close race with an 88-74 record. The Twins and Tigers finish with 86 & 85 wins, respectively...
AL West
Let's get the Mariners out of the way. Last year, their offense was historically bad. This year, it will be marginally better, but still terrible. They cannot score. Any offense that trots out both Jack Wilson and Brendan Ryan will struggle, especially hitting them together in the order. In a lineup that already features singles hitters in Ichiro and Chone Figgins... well you get the drift. They're planning on hitting Jack Cust cleanup. They are going with a surplus of youth on the pitching staff. They still have Cy Young award winner Felix Hernandez. My hunch is that they'll realize, sadly, that they'll need to move him to rebuild the team. This guy says 69-93 for your 2011 Mariners.
I always have a hard time picking against Mike Scioscia's Angels. BUT, their lineup is getting old with Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, and Vernon Wells. Kendrys Morales is starting the year on the DL. The rotation should be strong headed by Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana, and Joel Pineiro. They won't score enough, though, to win this year. Have to imagine they'll prepare a substantial offer for Albert Pujols this offseason.
The division should come down to the Rangers and Athletics. The Rangers are going to score, and their addition of Adrian Beltre should not be overlooked. He should thrive in Texas hitting between Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz. The big question will be how many games Hamilton and Cruz can play. Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus are excellent table setters. Mitch Moreland looks to be an excellent young first baseman. They're really going to miss Cliff Lee, though, in the rotation. Colby Lewis and CJ Wilson each bump up in the rotation, and neither can be considered an ace. On the other hand, the A's are loaded with pitching, reminiscent of their days with Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito. Their top 3 of Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, and Gio Gonzalez compare favorably with any top 3 in the AL. The middle of the lineup is weak with David DeJesus, Josh Willingham, and Hideki Matsui. I think they're pitching will be enough to compensate for the shortcomings on offense...
Athletics edge out the Rangers with the Angels finishing a distant 3rd
Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson - Rays, Kyle Drabek - Blue Jays
Cy Young: Jon Lester - Red Sox, Jered Weaver - Angels
MVP: Adrian Gonzalez - Red Sox, Robinson Cano - Yankees
And this is what I think I know heading into another exciting season...
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Prediction Time - Division Races and Awards
Time to put my fruitless guesses to the test again with a prediction of the division races and my picks for end of the year awards. At times I wonder why anyone even tries to do this... but that's what makes baseball fun! There are plenty of people who go through this exercise with no reward, and now it's my turn. Without further adieu, let's dive in...
NL EAST
Starting with the bad, it's tough to find a worse pitching staff than the Mets are going to throw out there. They already had a shocking lack of depth before Johan Santana got hurt, and now he's out until July at best. Headed by Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese... well, you get the picture, and it's not pretty. They need big contributions from Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran to have any semblance of a shot. Jose Reyes is in his walk year and could be primed for a big year, but the Mets are bad, and may challenge the Nationals at the bottom of the division.
The Nationals are moving in the right direction. Just not this year. Strasburg is on the shelf until 2012 (if the front office has a brain and doesn't bring him back in September). Everyone knows about Bryce Harper, but they also have perhaps the top catcher prospect in the game in Wilson Ramos. He'll mentor under Pudge Rodriguez this year and be ready to take the reins in 2012. They could compete as early as '13 for the NL East pennant.
Everyone loves the Phillies because of their likely dominant pitching staff. Halladay, Lee, and Oswalt are all capable of pitching like top 5 pitchers. Cole Hamels is primed for a huge season, in that he'll be throwing #4. I think each is capable of at least 16 wins. But, anyone who doesn't see holes in the lineup isn't looking. Chase Utley's knee is scaring everyone. Expect a down year from him. His numbers have been regressing the last 3 years. Placido Polanco offers no power at 3rd. Top prospect Domonic Brown, who needs to fill Jayson Werth's shoes, broke his hand and will certainly be rusty coming off surgery. They could struggle mightily to score runs, and they don't have much flexibility to go get a bat. This is why I think the NL East will be much closer than others. The Marlins and Braves will both be extremely competitive. They both have dynamic young bats - Florida with Mike Stanton (40 homeruns in year 2 is certainly possible) and Gaby Sanchez, Atlanta with Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman. Atlanta obtained Dan Uggla in the offseason to provide RH power. They both have top of the rotation starters in Josh Johnson and Tim Hudson/Tommy Hanson.
I'm picking the Phillies - but the division will be decided by 3 games or less.
NL Central
It's going to be more of the same for the Pirates this year. Following up a 105 loss campaign, they face an uphill climb, yet again. Their top 3 starters returning from last year went a combined 12-38 last year. Seriously. They can't pitch. They have some young building blocks in the lineup with Jose Tabata, Andrew McCutcheon, and Pedro Alvarez. McCutcheon is slated to hit 3rd this year. His 16 homeruns last year don't exactly incite fear in that part of the lineup. I'd expect another 100 loss season.
So the Astros have to be happy they have the Pirates around to keep them out of the cellar. Their lineup is poor and they just lost starting catcher Jason Castro for the season. The rotation is decent with Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez, and J.A. Happ, and they played inspired baseball down the stretch, but expecting them to contend is out of the question. Hunter Pence is a nice player. Carlos Lee is slowing down each year. They're hoping Brett Wallace takes some strides and becomes their 1st baseman of the future.
The top of the Central is a bit tougher to measure. The Brewers went all in this offseason in acquiring Zach Greinke and Shawn Marcum to join Yovani Gallardo at the top of a potentially very good rotation. Then Greinke broke his rib playing basketball, and he'll start the season on the DL. Marcum's shoulder is bothering him and he's topped out around 86 MPH this spring. Word is Manny Parra may start the season the DL as well. Rickie Weeks had more plate appearances than any player in baseball last year, but that isn't the norm. Never the less, without a clear dominant team in the division, the Brewers still look good. Prince Fielder is in his walk year, and they still have Ryan Braun, Casey McGehee, and Corey Hart. They'll score runs if they're healthy, but that's a big question mark.
The Reds stood idle in the offseason, keeping essentially their entire core intact, even as their Triple-A team remains stocked with prospects. Their offense will score runs with returning MVP Joey Votto anchoring the lineup in the 3-hole. Jay Bruce should be a lock for 30+ homeruns as he comes into his own. Relying on Scott Rolen to replicate '10 would be a huge mistake, and Dusty plans on hitting him cleanup... that could be a problem, as they're also light hitting at SS with Paul Janish (all glove). Drew Stubbs and Brandon Phillips could be pretty dynamic at the top of the order. The issue with the Reds is that they have no clear shut down starters. They're looking to Edinson Volquez to be their ace with Bronson Arroyo as their #2. They have great depth in the rotation, but I see a slight regression towards 85 wins for the Reds.
I'm a bit bullish on the Cubs only because the top of their rotation is potentially dominant. Matt Garza could very well become the ace in the National League, and Zambrano is capable of shut down stuff. Dempster should throw 200 innings and win 14-16 games. The lineup, though, has many holes. They have no leadoff hitter, and they have Carlos Pena (yes, the one who hit under .200 last season) in the 3-hole in front of Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez just looks like a guy who plays for the money, as does Alfonso Soriano, who has become an absolute albatross on their books. The Cubs will be closer to competing when Ramirez and Fukudome come off the books when they can re-allocate resources.
Spring started in terrible fashion for the Cardinals when Albert Pujols didn't sign his extension and ace Adam Wainwright was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery. The dust has settled, however, and the Cardinals still look strong. They could have the best lineup in the NL with Pujols and Holliday, along with CF Colby Rasmus, who quietly had the highest OPS of any NL Center Fielder last year and could touch 30 homeruns. They have question marks in 3B David Freese (surgery on both ankles) and newly acquired RF Lance Berkman, who hasn't played the outfield full time since ~ 2004. However, the pitching rotation looks to have the depth they sorely missed last season. Although Wainwright's absence hurts, Kyle McClellan and Kyle Lohse look ready to step back in. Lohse is fully recovered from a very rare injury, and McClellan has had an excellent spring to win the 5th spot in the rotation. Typically the favorites, this year they'll play as underdogs...
Cardinals take the Central in Pujols "walk year"
NL West
The Padres surprised everyone last year with their inspired play, but they faltered down the stretch and missed the playoffs. This year doesn't look to have the same feel good story line, as they've traded away their only legitimate bat (Adrian Gonzalez). Their 3-4 hitters look to be Ryan Ludwick and Brad Hawpe. Hawpe hit .245 with 9 homeruns in '10, and Ludwick hit just .211 after being acquired from the Cardinals (.200 at Petco in 29 games). They might not be as miserable offensively as the Mariners last year, but it could be close. Mat Latos struggled down the stretch and is a prime candidate for injury. The rest of the rotation is weak, at best. The Padres will see a fall from grace...
The D-Backs have some young, exciting talent in Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Ian Kennedy, and Daniel Hudson... but they will be missing their corner power bats after dealing Mark Reynolds and losing Andy LaRoche to free agency. Kennedy and Hudson look like fine young pitchers, but Kennedy certainly isn't an ace, but he's throwing opening day. I see them finishing 4th in Kirk Gibson's 1st year as manager. The Dodgers should be better but NEED bounce back seasons from both Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. They have much better depth in the starting rotation this year. If Furcal, Kemp, and Ethier all play up to their potential, the Dodgers could challenge. It just looks like they have too many holes (Jay Gibbons/Marcus Thames in LF, Casey Blake at 3B, light hitting 1B James Loney) to put it all together.
This one should come down to the Giants and Rockies, again, to the surprise of no one. The Giants are the defending champs and look better than last year. The rotation is intact, but you must worry about the extra workload of the World Series run. Cain/Sanchez/Bumgarner all hit career highs in innings pitched, and they were remarkably injury free in '10... something to watch. The lineup should be better, and look for power hitting prospect Brandon Belt to hit the majors around June, moving Aubrey Huff to left field and Pat Burrell to the bench. The Kung Fu Panda (Pablo Sandoval) came into spring in much better shape, and they'll have a full year of Andres Torres in CF over the disappointing Aaron Rowand. I'm all in on the Rockies, though. The top of their lineup with Dexter Fowler, Seth Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, and Troy Tulowitzki will score a ton of runs. Their rotation at the top with Ubaldo Jimenez, Jorge De la Rosa, and little known (but extremely talented) Jhoulys Chacin could be among the top 3-5 in the National League. They added depth with Jose Lopez and Ty Wiggington in the field, and grabbed insurance for Huston Street in Matt Lindstrom. The Rockies won't go 31-50 on the road this year.
Rockies to take the West with the Giants in hot pursuit...
The Cy Young, MVP, and Rookie of the Year races were extremely close and exciting in '10. As always, they're tough to predict.
Rookie of the Year: Freddie Freeman - 1B, Atlanta Braves, Brandon Belt - 1B, San Francisco Giants
Cy Young: Josh Johnson - SP, Florida Marlins, Roy Halladay - SP, Philadelphia Phillies
MVP: Albert Pujols - 1B, St. Louis Cardinals, Ryan Howard - 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
I'll take my ill-advised stabs at the AL in the next week. Let me know what you think!
NL EAST
Starting with the bad, it's tough to find a worse pitching staff than the Mets are going to throw out there. They already had a shocking lack of depth before Johan Santana got hurt, and now he's out until July at best. Headed by Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese... well, you get the picture, and it's not pretty. They need big contributions from Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran to have any semblance of a shot. Jose Reyes is in his walk year and could be primed for a big year, but the Mets are bad, and may challenge the Nationals at the bottom of the division.
The Nationals are moving in the right direction. Just not this year. Strasburg is on the shelf until 2012 (if the front office has a brain and doesn't bring him back in September). Everyone knows about Bryce Harper, but they also have perhaps the top catcher prospect in the game in Wilson Ramos. He'll mentor under Pudge Rodriguez this year and be ready to take the reins in 2012. They could compete as early as '13 for the NL East pennant.
Everyone loves the Phillies because of their likely dominant pitching staff. Halladay, Lee, and Oswalt are all capable of pitching like top 5 pitchers. Cole Hamels is primed for a huge season, in that he'll be throwing #4. I think each is capable of at least 16 wins. But, anyone who doesn't see holes in the lineup isn't looking. Chase Utley's knee is scaring everyone. Expect a down year from him. His numbers have been regressing the last 3 years. Placido Polanco offers no power at 3rd. Top prospect Domonic Brown, who needs to fill Jayson Werth's shoes, broke his hand and will certainly be rusty coming off surgery. They could struggle mightily to score runs, and they don't have much flexibility to go get a bat. This is why I think the NL East will be much closer than others. The Marlins and Braves will both be extremely competitive. They both have dynamic young bats - Florida with Mike Stanton (40 homeruns in year 2 is certainly possible) and Gaby Sanchez, Atlanta with Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman. Atlanta obtained Dan Uggla in the offseason to provide RH power. They both have top of the rotation starters in Josh Johnson and Tim Hudson/Tommy Hanson.
I'm picking the Phillies - but the division will be decided by 3 games or less.
NL Central
It's going to be more of the same for the Pirates this year. Following up a 105 loss campaign, they face an uphill climb, yet again. Their top 3 starters returning from last year went a combined 12-38 last year. Seriously. They can't pitch. They have some young building blocks in the lineup with Jose Tabata, Andrew McCutcheon, and Pedro Alvarez. McCutcheon is slated to hit 3rd this year. His 16 homeruns last year don't exactly incite fear in that part of the lineup. I'd expect another 100 loss season.
So the Astros have to be happy they have the Pirates around to keep them out of the cellar. Their lineup is poor and they just lost starting catcher Jason Castro for the season. The rotation is decent with Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez, and J.A. Happ, and they played inspired baseball down the stretch, but expecting them to contend is out of the question. Hunter Pence is a nice player. Carlos Lee is slowing down each year. They're hoping Brett Wallace takes some strides and becomes their 1st baseman of the future.
The top of the Central is a bit tougher to measure. The Brewers went all in this offseason in acquiring Zach Greinke and Shawn Marcum to join Yovani Gallardo at the top of a potentially very good rotation. Then Greinke broke his rib playing basketball, and he'll start the season on the DL. Marcum's shoulder is bothering him and he's topped out around 86 MPH this spring. Word is Manny Parra may start the season the DL as well. Rickie Weeks had more plate appearances than any player in baseball last year, but that isn't the norm. Never the less, without a clear dominant team in the division, the Brewers still look good. Prince Fielder is in his walk year, and they still have Ryan Braun, Casey McGehee, and Corey Hart. They'll score runs if they're healthy, but that's a big question mark.
The Reds stood idle in the offseason, keeping essentially their entire core intact, even as their Triple-A team remains stocked with prospects. Their offense will score runs with returning MVP Joey Votto anchoring the lineup in the 3-hole. Jay Bruce should be a lock for 30+ homeruns as he comes into his own. Relying on Scott Rolen to replicate '10 would be a huge mistake, and Dusty plans on hitting him cleanup... that could be a problem, as they're also light hitting at SS with Paul Janish (all glove). Drew Stubbs and Brandon Phillips could be pretty dynamic at the top of the order. The issue with the Reds is that they have no clear shut down starters. They're looking to Edinson Volquez to be their ace with Bronson Arroyo as their #2. They have great depth in the rotation, but I see a slight regression towards 85 wins for the Reds.
I'm a bit bullish on the Cubs only because the top of their rotation is potentially dominant. Matt Garza could very well become the ace in the National League, and Zambrano is capable of shut down stuff. Dempster should throw 200 innings and win 14-16 games. The lineup, though, has many holes. They have no leadoff hitter, and they have Carlos Pena (yes, the one who hit under .200 last season) in the 3-hole in front of Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez just looks like a guy who plays for the money, as does Alfonso Soriano, who has become an absolute albatross on their books. The Cubs will be closer to competing when Ramirez and Fukudome come off the books when they can re-allocate resources.
Spring started in terrible fashion for the Cardinals when Albert Pujols didn't sign his extension and ace Adam Wainwright was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery. The dust has settled, however, and the Cardinals still look strong. They could have the best lineup in the NL with Pujols and Holliday, along with CF Colby Rasmus, who quietly had the highest OPS of any NL Center Fielder last year and could touch 30 homeruns. They have question marks in 3B David Freese (surgery on both ankles) and newly acquired RF Lance Berkman, who hasn't played the outfield full time since ~ 2004. However, the pitching rotation looks to have the depth they sorely missed last season. Although Wainwright's absence hurts, Kyle McClellan and Kyle Lohse look ready to step back in. Lohse is fully recovered from a very rare injury, and McClellan has had an excellent spring to win the 5th spot in the rotation. Typically the favorites, this year they'll play as underdogs...
Cardinals take the Central in Pujols "walk year"
NL West
The Padres surprised everyone last year with their inspired play, but they faltered down the stretch and missed the playoffs. This year doesn't look to have the same feel good story line, as they've traded away their only legitimate bat (Adrian Gonzalez). Their 3-4 hitters look to be Ryan Ludwick and Brad Hawpe. Hawpe hit .245 with 9 homeruns in '10, and Ludwick hit just .211 after being acquired from the Cardinals (.200 at Petco in 29 games). They might not be as miserable offensively as the Mariners last year, but it could be close. Mat Latos struggled down the stretch and is a prime candidate for injury. The rest of the rotation is weak, at best. The Padres will see a fall from grace...
The D-Backs have some young, exciting talent in Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Ian Kennedy, and Daniel Hudson... but they will be missing their corner power bats after dealing Mark Reynolds and losing Andy LaRoche to free agency. Kennedy and Hudson look like fine young pitchers, but Kennedy certainly isn't an ace, but he's throwing opening day. I see them finishing 4th in Kirk Gibson's 1st year as manager. The Dodgers should be better but NEED bounce back seasons from both Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. They have much better depth in the starting rotation this year. If Furcal, Kemp, and Ethier all play up to their potential, the Dodgers could challenge. It just looks like they have too many holes (Jay Gibbons/Marcus Thames in LF, Casey Blake at 3B, light hitting 1B James Loney) to put it all together.
This one should come down to the Giants and Rockies, again, to the surprise of no one. The Giants are the defending champs and look better than last year. The rotation is intact, but you must worry about the extra workload of the World Series run. Cain/Sanchez/Bumgarner all hit career highs in innings pitched, and they were remarkably injury free in '10... something to watch. The lineup should be better, and look for power hitting prospect Brandon Belt to hit the majors around June, moving Aubrey Huff to left field and Pat Burrell to the bench. The Kung Fu Panda (Pablo Sandoval) came into spring in much better shape, and they'll have a full year of Andres Torres in CF over the disappointing Aaron Rowand. I'm all in on the Rockies, though. The top of their lineup with Dexter Fowler, Seth Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, and Troy Tulowitzki will score a ton of runs. Their rotation at the top with Ubaldo Jimenez, Jorge De la Rosa, and little known (but extremely talented) Jhoulys Chacin could be among the top 3-5 in the National League. They added depth with Jose Lopez and Ty Wiggington in the field, and grabbed insurance for Huston Street in Matt Lindstrom. The Rockies won't go 31-50 on the road this year.
Rockies to take the West with the Giants in hot pursuit...
The Cy Young, MVP, and Rookie of the Year races were extremely close and exciting in '10. As always, they're tough to predict.
Rookie of the Year: Freddie Freeman - 1B, Atlanta Braves, Brandon Belt - 1B, San Francisco Giants
Cy Young: Josh Johnson - SP, Florida Marlins, Roy Halladay - SP, Philadelphia Phillies
MVP: Albert Pujols - 1B, St. Louis Cardinals, Ryan Howard - 1B, Philadelphia Phillies
I'll take my ill-advised stabs at the AL in the next week. Let me know what you think!
Monday, February 28, 2011
Potential Impact Rookies for '11
I'm going to start by saying that '10 was a great year for rookies bursting onto the scene, lead by Buster Posey, Jason Heyward, Neftali Feliz, Jaime Garcia, Mike Stanton, and even Starlin Castro. Teams are putting a huge focus into developing their young talent as they've seen teams like the Rays and Twins continually have success with young players that are cost controlled. There are a good number of rookies likely to play big roles with the big clubs this year. I don't anticipate any breakout "stars", necessarily, but certainly players that can make an almost immediate impact.
The first player I'm going to mention is Domonic Brown of the Philadelphia Phillies. At age 23, the young outfielder will have the job of replacing Washington's newest $126 million man, Jayson Werth. While Werth never hit .300 or drove in 100, he was THE significant right handed bat in the Phillies lineup. Brown is a lefty, so where he fits in the lineup is a question... the guess here is that he'll start 7th or 8th. He has all 5 tools, had a .980 OPS across Double & Triple-A in 2010, and will get every chance to start right away. He won't replace Werth's production right away, but I would venture to guess that he'll be a better player within 3 years than Werth.
The next player is Dustin Ackley, the Seattle Mariners 2nd base prospect. I bring him up here because, in almost the opposite position of Brown, he literally has the smallest shoes to fill. Think about this... word is that the Seattle Mariners, fresh off scoring 100 less runs than any team in baseball, are going to trot out light-hitting Jack Wilson at SS and lighter-hitting Brendan Ryan at 2B. These guys may very well make Web Gems every night on Baseball Tonight, but neither got on base at even a .290 clip last year. I think a 10 year old Prince Fielder could beat these two guys in a homerun derby. We'll throw Cesar Izturis in the fold, too. Ryan and Wilson combined for 2 homeruns in 632 at-bats last year. I think you get the drift... Ackley isn't going to impersonate Chase Utley or Robinson Cano, but he will hit better than this dynamic duo of weak. Expect to see him midseason.
Aroldis Chapman of the Reds made his debut in '10 but hasn't given up his rookie status. The lefty out of the Reds pen hit 105 MPH on the gun in a game last season. He has 3 pitches and his 90 MPH slider is nearly unhittable. What makes it even tougher is that no one knows where it's going... imagine trying to prepare for a 100+ MPH fastball and having a ball moving like a frisbee come in at a speed that tops Jeff Suppan's fastball (here is where you pause and think to yourself how odd it is that Chapman and Suppan's "stuff" were referenced in the same sentence - apologies... I'll never get over how bad Suppan's 86 MPH fastball is, and how he parlayed it into a $39 million contract from the Brewers). I think the Reds would love for their investment to turn into a #1 starter, but he could be the biggest weapon at the end of their bullpen. The Reds have great depth in their rotation, so I expect Chapman to blow people away all season in the 8th/9th innings with strikeout numbers comparable to Billy Wagner in his prime.
Jeremy Hellickson and Kyle Drabek are two young starters in the AL East that are slotted into their respective rotations. Drabek has the pedigree in that he's the son of 1990 Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek (Drabek won the award with the Pirates when they still fielded a major league team). He has plus-stuff but is somewhat inconsistent. Hellickson made Matt Garza expendable in the trade with the Cubs and figures to step right in. He had a sniff of the majors last season and compiled a 4-0 record in 36 innings of work across 10 appearances. Drabek has the higher ceiling, but I think Hellickson is poised for a better season in '11.
Desmond Jennings has been groomed as Carl Crawford's replacement in Tampa Bay. Jennings showed proficiency in all categories in the minors, but the signings of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez may slow his rise. If Jennings shows well, the Rays could be inclined to move BJ Upton and slide Jennings into CF, but that may be a bit premature. He had an injury plagued '10, but he is certainly one to watch.
Another exciting bat is first baseman Brandon Belt of the San Francisco Giants. He's just 22 but had an exceptional season in '10. His OPS was 1.070 and he hit .352 with 23 homeruns & 112 RBI's in 136 games. He looked ready to assume the 1B job in San Fran, but the Giants re-signed Aubrey Huff after he helped stabilize their lineup on the way to the World Series win. Belt is the 1st baseman of the future and anchor of the lineup with Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval. This year, expect him to get some run in left field when the Giants tire of Pat Burrell striking out every trip to the plate. The Giants have really nailed a lot of their draft picks in recent years...
There are some higher end prospects, but I don't anticipate we'll see them this year. In a pre-cursor to next year's article on rookies, look for 4 Royals prospects... they are coming fast, and the Royals will have a quick rise to relevancy in the AL Central (Eric Hosmer - 1B, Wil Myers - C, Mike Moustakas - 3B & Mike Montgomery - SP). Moustakas could get a call-up this year... 36 homeruns in 118 games in Double-A last year suggest he's not far off. But the first three are likely to hit 3-4-5 for the next five years for the Royals.
As always, thanks for reading!
The first player I'm going to mention is Domonic Brown of the Philadelphia Phillies. At age 23, the young outfielder will have the job of replacing Washington's newest $126 million man, Jayson Werth. While Werth never hit .300 or drove in 100, he was THE significant right handed bat in the Phillies lineup. Brown is a lefty, so where he fits in the lineup is a question... the guess here is that he'll start 7th or 8th. He has all 5 tools, had a .980 OPS across Double & Triple-A in 2010, and will get every chance to start right away. He won't replace Werth's production right away, but I would venture to guess that he'll be a better player within 3 years than Werth.
The next player is Dustin Ackley, the Seattle Mariners 2nd base prospect. I bring him up here because, in almost the opposite position of Brown, he literally has the smallest shoes to fill. Think about this... word is that the Seattle Mariners, fresh off scoring 100 less runs than any team in baseball, are going to trot out light-hitting Jack Wilson at SS and lighter-hitting Brendan Ryan at 2B. These guys may very well make Web Gems every night on Baseball Tonight, but neither got on base at even a .290 clip last year. I think a 10 year old Prince Fielder could beat these two guys in a homerun derby. We'll throw Cesar Izturis in the fold, too. Ryan and Wilson combined for 2 homeruns in 632 at-bats last year. I think you get the drift... Ackley isn't going to impersonate Chase Utley or Robinson Cano, but he will hit better than this dynamic duo of weak. Expect to see him midseason.
Aroldis Chapman of the Reds made his debut in '10 but hasn't given up his rookie status. The lefty out of the Reds pen hit 105 MPH on the gun in a game last season. He has 3 pitches and his 90 MPH slider is nearly unhittable. What makes it even tougher is that no one knows where it's going... imagine trying to prepare for a 100+ MPH fastball and having a ball moving like a frisbee come in at a speed that tops Jeff Suppan's fastball (here is where you pause and think to yourself how odd it is that Chapman and Suppan's "stuff" were referenced in the same sentence - apologies... I'll never get over how bad Suppan's 86 MPH fastball is, and how he parlayed it into a $39 million contract from the Brewers). I think the Reds would love for their investment to turn into a #1 starter, but he could be the biggest weapon at the end of their bullpen. The Reds have great depth in their rotation, so I expect Chapman to blow people away all season in the 8th/9th innings with strikeout numbers comparable to Billy Wagner in his prime.
Jeremy Hellickson and Kyle Drabek are two young starters in the AL East that are slotted into their respective rotations. Drabek has the pedigree in that he's the son of 1990 Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek (Drabek won the award with the Pirates when they still fielded a major league team). He has plus-stuff but is somewhat inconsistent. Hellickson made Matt Garza expendable in the trade with the Cubs and figures to step right in. He had a sniff of the majors last season and compiled a 4-0 record in 36 innings of work across 10 appearances. Drabek has the higher ceiling, but I think Hellickson is poised for a better season in '11.
Desmond Jennings has been groomed as Carl Crawford's replacement in Tampa Bay. Jennings showed proficiency in all categories in the minors, but the signings of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez may slow his rise. If Jennings shows well, the Rays could be inclined to move BJ Upton and slide Jennings into CF, but that may be a bit premature. He had an injury plagued '10, but he is certainly one to watch.
Another exciting bat is first baseman Brandon Belt of the San Francisco Giants. He's just 22 but had an exceptional season in '10. His OPS was 1.070 and he hit .352 with 23 homeruns & 112 RBI's in 136 games. He looked ready to assume the 1B job in San Fran, but the Giants re-signed Aubrey Huff after he helped stabilize their lineup on the way to the World Series win. Belt is the 1st baseman of the future and anchor of the lineup with Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval. This year, expect him to get some run in left field when the Giants tire of Pat Burrell striking out every trip to the plate. The Giants have really nailed a lot of their draft picks in recent years...
There are some higher end prospects, but I don't anticipate we'll see them this year. In a pre-cursor to next year's article on rookies, look for 4 Royals prospects... they are coming fast, and the Royals will have a quick rise to relevancy in the AL Central (Eric Hosmer - 1B, Wil Myers - C, Mike Moustakas - 3B & Mike Montgomery - SP). Moustakas could get a call-up this year... 36 homeruns in 118 games in Double-A last year suggest he's not far off. But the first three are likely to hit 3-4-5 for the next five years for the Royals.
As always, thanks for reading!
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Projections - How Bizarre...
There is a really funny thing about projections. As baseball fans, we love them. As fantasy baseball players, we use them to predict how great our teams will be. "Experts" produce them, then debate them incessantly... and we read about it. We watch it. We eat it up. But how often are they right?
A well regarded publication released their MLB Preview 2010 last year and featured the Seattle Mariners. Everyone's darling last year, they said, "A Legit Contender. The Mariners are dead serious about winning the AL West with pitching and defense." In case you missed last season, the Mariners proceeded to go 61-101, the 2nd worst record in all of baseball (ahead of only the hapless Pirates), and finished a whopping 29 games behind the eventual AL Champs, the Texas Rangers. When this issue came out, no doubt Red Sox and Phillies fans were enthused... they were going to face each other in the World Series! The Red Sox were going to win, of course, and this was based on 100 simulated seasons. Great excitement in New England... except that the Red Sox didn't make the playoffs. Oops. Hey, if you read my blog last year, I didn't do any better...
What many of us are even more consumed by are projected statistics. Bill James is likely the most highly respected statistician in baseball, and produces his handbook every year. Baseball junkies read it as if it was the Bible. Well maybe not the Bible... but close. And when you're wondering how your team will do (or your fantasy team), it can be fun to digest these numbers as if they were the truth. You may look at his projection for Rajai Davis (.284 average, 4 homeruns, 50 stolen bases) and think to yourself, "Davis can definitely help me win." Then Rajai Davis goes out, hits .284 with 5 homeruns and exactly 50 stolen bases! This Bill James is a GENIUS. James told us that Matt Holliday would have an OPS of .922 and hit 27 homeruns... and Holliday had an OPS of .922 and hit 28 homeruns. He let us know that Miguel Cabrera would probably hit 36 homeruns with 124 RBI's. Cabrera went out and hit 38 homeruns with 126 RBI's. Not too shabby! He told us that Hanley Ramirez would steal 31 bases. He stole 32. Did you listen? Even Austin Jackson, a relatively unknown rookie, was thrown in the mix. James predicted a .293 avg... Austin hit .294.
So it's reasonable to think he gets them all right, then, correct? Not so much. If you relied on Bill James, you likely didn't see Carlos Gonzalez coming. Projected at .280 with 19 homeruns and 73 rbi's, he simply went out and torched the NL with a .336 avg., 34 homeruns, and 117 rbi's. He did nail his 26 stolen bases, however. That's a big miss. How about Joey Votto, the NL MVP? Projected at 27 homeruns and 90 rbi's, Votto finished with 37 homeruns and 113 rbi's. According to James, you could have counted on 22 homeruns and 100 rbi's from Joe Mauer... and Mauer had a power outage with just 9 homeruns and 75 rbi's.
So you're wondering what the point is... projections can be "educated guesses", but even with all of the tools available, the experts are completely hit and miss. I analyzed James projections against actual results for the top 48 and bottom 48 hitters in the league, sorted by batting average (that would give a reasonable amount of both power and speed guys, and quite a few bums... Mark Reynolds and his .198 avg. come to mind). Of the top 48 hitters in the league, I found that the easiest statistics to project were Average and OPS, where James' error rates were just 2.91% and 3.80% respectively. The counting stats were much more difficult to predict. In order of difficulty: Hits (9.86%), Homeruns (9.57%), RBI's (7.21%), Runs (6.27%), and Stolen Bases (5.32%). Interestingly enough, James missed low in every category.
I thought that I'd find similar error rates with the bottom 48 hitters. Of course, he nailed some of these. He correctly projected that Cesar Izturis (who honestly can barely kill a fly with a bat) would hit 1 homerun with 28 rbi's and 11 stolen bases. Perfect on all 3, although clearly not a fantasy option. James told us that Alcides Escobar was a fantasy option, projecting a .288 avg. and 42 stolen bases. The kid hit everything in the minors. He disappointed with a .235 avg. and just 10 stolen bases. Such is life if you live by the guess. Anyway, his error rates, in order of difficulty, for these hitters were: Stolen Bases (23.11%), Runs (12.93%), Average (11.40%), OPS (9.89%), Hits (9.37%), Homeruns (6.70%), and RBI's (6.21%). James missed high in each category for this sample.
There are two takeaways here. One, you can pour over projections as much as you want. In reality, very few of them are completely accurate, and many are very far off target. The experts, with all of their formulas and statisticians, aren't really better at this than we are. That's why I believe that Mike Stanton is going to hit .272 with 37 homeruns this year. Will he? Your guess is as good as mine!
The second takeaway is that it may appear that I have an extreme amount of time on my hands. In reality, just some boring nights with nothing to do on a recent business trip to Cincinnati.
Thanks for reading!
A well regarded publication released their MLB Preview 2010 last year and featured the Seattle Mariners. Everyone's darling last year, they said, "A Legit Contender. The Mariners are dead serious about winning the AL West with pitching and defense." In case you missed last season, the Mariners proceeded to go 61-101, the 2nd worst record in all of baseball (ahead of only the hapless Pirates), and finished a whopping 29 games behind the eventual AL Champs, the Texas Rangers. When this issue came out, no doubt Red Sox and Phillies fans were enthused... they were going to face each other in the World Series! The Red Sox were going to win, of course, and this was based on 100 simulated seasons. Great excitement in New England... except that the Red Sox didn't make the playoffs. Oops. Hey, if you read my blog last year, I didn't do any better...
What many of us are even more consumed by are projected statistics. Bill James is likely the most highly respected statistician in baseball, and produces his handbook every year. Baseball junkies read it as if it was the Bible. Well maybe not the Bible... but close. And when you're wondering how your team will do (or your fantasy team), it can be fun to digest these numbers as if they were the truth. You may look at his projection for Rajai Davis (.284 average, 4 homeruns, 50 stolen bases) and think to yourself, "Davis can definitely help me win." Then Rajai Davis goes out, hits .284 with 5 homeruns and exactly 50 stolen bases! This Bill James is a GENIUS. James told us that Matt Holliday would have an OPS of .922 and hit 27 homeruns... and Holliday had an OPS of .922 and hit 28 homeruns. He let us know that Miguel Cabrera would probably hit 36 homeruns with 124 RBI's. Cabrera went out and hit 38 homeruns with 126 RBI's. Not too shabby! He told us that Hanley Ramirez would steal 31 bases. He stole 32. Did you listen? Even Austin Jackson, a relatively unknown rookie, was thrown in the mix. James predicted a .293 avg... Austin hit .294.
So it's reasonable to think he gets them all right, then, correct? Not so much. If you relied on Bill James, you likely didn't see Carlos Gonzalez coming. Projected at .280 with 19 homeruns and 73 rbi's, he simply went out and torched the NL with a .336 avg., 34 homeruns, and 117 rbi's. He did nail his 26 stolen bases, however. That's a big miss. How about Joey Votto, the NL MVP? Projected at 27 homeruns and 90 rbi's, Votto finished with 37 homeruns and 113 rbi's. According to James, you could have counted on 22 homeruns and 100 rbi's from Joe Mauer... and Mauer had a power outage with just 9 homeruns and 75 rbi's.
So you're wondering what the point is... projections can be "educated guesses", but even with all of the tools available, the experts are completely hit and miss. I analyzed James projections against actual results for the top 48 and bottom 48 hitters in the league, sorted by batting average (that would give a reasonable amount of both power and speed guys, and quite a few bums... Mark Reynolds and his .198 avg. come to mind). Of the top 48 hitters in the league, I found that the easiest statistics to project were Average and OPS, where James' error rates were just 2.91% and 3.80% respectively. The counting stats were much more difficult to predict. In order of difficulty: Hits (9.86%), Homeruns (9.57%), RBI's (7.21%), Runs (6.27%), and Stolen Bases (5.32%). Interestingly enough, James missed low in every category.
I thought that I'd find similar error rates with the bottom 48 hitters. Of course, he nailed some of these. He correctly projected that Cesar Izturis (who honestly can barely kill a fly with a bat) would hit 1 homerun with 28 rbi's and 11 stolen bases. Perfect on all 3, although clearly not a fantasy option. James told us that Alcides Escobar was a fantasy option, projecting a .288 avg. and 42 stolen bases. The kid hit everything in the minors. He disappointed with a .235 avg. and just 10 stolen bases. Such is life if you live by the guess. Anyway, his error rates, in order of difficulty, for these hitters were: Stolen Bases (23.11%), Runs (12.93%), Average (11.40%), OPS (9.89%), Hits (9.37%), Homeruns (6.70%), and RBI's (6.21%). James missed high in each category for this sample.
There are two takeaways here. One, you can pour over projections as much as you want. In reality, very few of them are completely accurate, and many are very far off target. The experts, with all of their formulas and statisticians, aren't really better at this than we are. That's why I believe that Mike Stanton is going to hit .272 with 37 homeruns this year. Will he? Your guess is as good as mine!
The second takeaway is that it may appear that I have an extreme amount of time on my hands. In reality, just some boring nights with nothing to do on a recent business trip to Cincinnati.
Thanks for reading!
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
2011 - A New Season Awaits
A new year and new season is upon us. I want to thank each and every one of you who took the time to read the blog in 2010. It was my first go around, so this year I will be making some changes, updating more often, and keeping it interesting. User feedback is much encouraged, and if you have questions for TheBaseballGuy, please send them in, and I'll get your answers!
Look for posts coming up concerning the relevance of statistical forecasting, important signings of the offseason, players to watch (both rising and falling), and some sure to be wrong predictions for this season.
Just over a week until Spring Training officially starts... as Bart Scott would say, "Can't wait!!!"
Look for posts coming up concerning the relevance of statistical forecasting, important signings of the offseason, players to watch (both rising and falling), and some sure to be wrong predictions for this season.
Just over a week until Spring Training officially starts... as Bart Scott would say, "Can't wait!!!"
Monday, September 6, 2010
Are the Padres disappearing in the West?
In what has been a remarkably surprising season for the San Diego Padres, nothing should shock us. But, most were shocked that, as of August 25th, the Padres had the best record in the National League... most experts (and this amateur...) picked them to finish last! And now, heading into Labor Day, they're on the ropes amidst a 10-game losing streak. The Giants and Rockies are hot on their heels. How will it finish?
- Many are still shocked the Padres are even here. They have only 2 players with more than 50 RBI's (Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Headley). No joke here, Jerry Hairston Jr. is 3rd on the team in both homeruns (10) and RBI's (50). So how are they here?? They lead the league in team ERA at 3.37, and they miss bats. Their top 5 relievers (who will remain nameless, as it's what they prefer) strike out more than a batter per inning, and 3 of them have ERA's under 2.00. The staff is 2nd in the league in total strikeouts. They are lead by young ace Mat Latos, journeyman Jon Garland, and young lefty Clayton Richard, obtained in the Jake Peavy trade last year. They've surprised all year, but I think the magic is gone, because...
- The Giants and Rockies are charging hard, with the Giants closing to within just a game heading into Labor Day. The big question for the Giants when the season began was run production, and early in the season, it was clear they wouldn't score enough runs. However, mid-season call up Buster Posey, while making a strong run at Rookie of the Year, has become a major threat, hitting .328 with 11 HR and 55 RBI's in just 84 games. Aubrey Huff has been excellent, and Andres Torres is a late bloomer in the outfield, providing a dual threat with power and speed. They've added both Jose Guillen and Pat Burrell to bolster their lineup, and their pitching has been strong. The stability from the rotation (Cain, Lincecum, Zito, and Sanchez have combined for 114 starts) has been the key. None of them will contend for the Cy Young, but staying healthy is half the battle... just ask the Cardinals. They have 4 games left with the Padres and 3 with the Rockies... the Rockies are charging hard again (seems like their September theme). They're lead by prime MVP candidate Carlos Gonzalez, who is leading the league in batting avg. and hitting .382 since the All-Star break. Troy Tulowitzki is healthy again and hitting .343 since the break. Ubaldo Jimenez can dominate a game and leads the league with 18 wins. The rest of the pitching staff is somewhat underwhelming, but they seem to win when it counts.
- Joe Torre deserves a lot of credit for keeping the Dodgers in the race for so long, but no one could really foresee how much of an impact the McCourt divorce would have on the Dodgers ability to spend. Young stars Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp started red-hot, but have hit .233 and .231, respectively, after the All-Star break. Perhaps the pressure to produce without Manny Ramirez was too much this early in their careers (or Rhianna could be high maintenance... just sayin'). Clayton Kershaw has been excellent, and if he can cut down his walks, will challenge for Cy Young awards in the coming years. The bullpen, thought to be a strength when the season began, has been inconsistent. Although they're still at .500, it's been a very disappointing season in "Mannywood".
- The Diamondbacks are only better than the Pirates in the NL. I could leave it at that, but we can discuss a couple things... Justin Upton regressed a bit, but still figures to be dynamic. Chris Young has had an excellent bounce back from a forgettable 2009. Mark Reynolds may hit 40 homeruns again, but his .212 batting average and 200+ strikeouts are crippling. Ian Kennedy has adjusted nicely to his new team after being acquired from the Yankees, and Daniel Hudson has been nothing short of outstanding coming over from the White Sox.... think they're regretting (even a little...) trading Carlos Gonzalez to acquire Haren? I know, hindsight is 20/20, but still. Cargo might be the best player in the league. OK, I'm done with the D-Backs.
How the West will be won: Going out on a limb... I think the NL West finishes Giants - Rockies - Padres, with just the Giants making the playoffs. The Padres just don't score enough to win... consistently... I guess. Should be exciting!
Stay tuned for the AL run downs, along with MVP and ROY races this week...
- Many are still shocked the Padres are even here. They have only 2 players with more than 50 RBI's (Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Headley). No joke here, Jerry Hairston Jr. is 3rd on the team in both homeruns (10) and RBI's (50). So how are they here?? They lead the league in team ERA at 3.37, and they miss bats. Their top 5 relievers (who will remain nameless, as it's what they prefer) strike out more than a batter per inning, and 3 of them have ERA's under 2.00. The staff is 2nd in the league in total strikeouts. They are lead by young ace Mat Latos, journeyman Jon Garland, and young lefty Clayton Richard, obtained in the Jake Peavy trade last year. They've surprised all year, but I think the magic is gone, because...
- The Giants and Rockies are charging hard, with the Giants closing to within just a game heading into Labor Day. The big question for the Giants when the season began was run production, and early in the season, it was clear they wouldn't score enough runs. However, mid-season call up Buster Posey, while making a strong run at Rookie of the Year, has become a major threat, hitting .328 with 11 HR and 55 RBI's in just 84 games. Aubrey Huff has been excellent, and Andres Torres is a late bloomer in the outfield, providing a dual threat with power and speed. They've added both Jose Guillen and Pat Burrell to bolster their lineup, and their pitching has been strong. The stability from the rotation (Cain, Lincecum, Zito, and Sanchez have combined for 114 starts) has been the key. None of them will contend for the Cy Young, but staying healthy is half the battle... just ask the Cardinals. They have 4 games left with the Padres and 3 with the Rockies... the Rockies are charging hard again (seems like their September theme). They're lead by prime MVP candidate Carlos Gonzalez, who is leading the league in batting avg. and hitting .382 since the All-Star break. Troy Tulowitzki is healthy again and hitting .343 since the break. Ubaldo Jimenez can dominate a game and leads the league with 18 wins. The rest of the pitching staff is somewhat underwhelming, but they seem to win when it counts.
- Joe Torre deserves a lot of credit for keeping the Dodgers in the race for so long, but no one could really foresee how much of an impact the McCourt divorce would have on the Dodgers ability to spend. Young stars Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp started red-hot, but have hit .233 and .231, respectively, after the All-Star break. Perhaps the pressure to produce without Manny Ramirez was too much this early in their careers (or Rhianna could be high maintenance... just sayin'). Clayton Kershaw has been excellent, and if he can cut down his walks, will challenge for Cy Young awards in the coming years. The bullpen, thought to be a strength when the season began, has been inconsistent. Although they're still at .500, it's been a very disappointing season in "Mannywood".
- The Diamondbacks are only better than the Pirates in the NL. I could leave it at that, but we can discuss a couple things... Justin Upton regressed a bit, but still figures to be dynamic. Chris Young has had an excellent bounce back from a forgettable 2009. Mark Reynolds may hit 40 homeruns again, but his .212 batting average and 200+ strikeouts are crippling. Ian Kennedy has adjusted nicely to his new team after being acquired from the Yankees, and Daniel Hudson has been nothing short of outstanding coming over from the White Sox.... think they're regretting (even a little...) trading Carlos Gonzalez to acquire Haren? I know, hindsight is 20/20, but still. Cargo might be the best player in the league. OK, I'm done with the D-Backs.
How the West will be won: Going out on a limb... I think the NL West finishes Giants - Rockies - Padres, with just the Giants making the playoffs. The Padres just don't score enough to win... consistently... I guess. Should be exciting!
Stay tuned for the AL run downs, along with MVP and ROY races this week...
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